ECAC Power Ratings – Feb. 8, 2019

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At a glance: The top three teams are now within one rating point of each other. Quinnipiac‘s rating went up on the strength of a 7-2 win at St. Lawrence, while the Bobcats’ 4-2 win at Clarkson moved the Golden Knights’ rating down. … Colgate‘s brutal weekend (one goal for, 10 goals against) moved them closer to St. Lawrence at the bottom of the barrel. … Princeton, which can’t win without its’ power play, needed more from the man advantage unit on Friday. The Tiger power play went 2-for-6 and had 10.3 minutes of power play time in a 3-2 loss to St. Lawrence, a loss that looks even worse for Princeton when you consider their +32CF in that game AND that St. Lawrence scored the game winner on their only power play of the game.

Conference Ratings:

ECAC Indexed Rating Last Week Change
Quinnipiac 111.7 107.66 4.04
Clarkson 111.07 116.04 -4.97
Cornell 110.76 109.29 1.47
Harvard 107.57 105.8 1.77
Yale 106.04 105.45 0.59
Union 102.86 100.86 2
Dartmouth 99.62 101.43 -1.81
Brown 95.45 95.57 -0.12
Princeton 93.3 94.46 -1.16
RPI 91.95 89.34 2.61
Colgate 87.05 91.26 -4.21
SLU 82.84 82.84 0

Overall Ratings:

Overall Indexed Rating Last Week Change
Quinnipiac 127.48 127.75 -0.27
Clarkson 121.7 123.5 -1.8
Union 115.89 113.33 2.56
Harvard 111.24 109.51 1.73
Cornell 108.54 106.6 1.94
Yale 102.9 102.3 0.6
Princeton 92.92 93.32 -0.4
Brown 92.63 93.41 -0.78
Dartmouth 92.03 93.36 -1.33
Colgate 80.62 83.62 -3
RPI 80 78.26 1.74
SLU 74.07 75.03 -0.96

As always, ratings are indexed to 100, so the closer to 100 your team’s rating is, the closer to average they are.

Last week’s picks:

Three for five on Friday (thanks for nothing, Princeton and Clarkson!), though if you bet SLU at +310, you had a good Friday night. Three for five on Saturday, and if RPI had mustered one more goal… oh well. Harvard lost Tuesday, I thought they’d beat BC.

This week’s picks:

Friday, Feb. 8 (betting lines from 5dimes.eu)

St. Lawrence (+220) at Colgate (-300) EC 7:00 pm ET
Clarkson (-110) at Cornell (-130)  EC 7:00 pm ET
Rensselaer (+150) at Dartmouth (-190)  EC 7:00 pm ET
Union (+220) at Harvard (-300)  EC 7:00 pm ET
Brown (+100) at Princeton (-140)  EC,IV 7:00 pm ET
Yale (+340) at Quinnipiac (-510)  EC 7:00 pm ET

I’m picking SLU to beat Colgate because the Raiders’ penalty kill is shockingly bad. According to data I’ve compiled, Colgate’s penalty kill is more than two standard deviations below average for the ECAC, pulling in a stellar (sarcasm) 42.81 rating (indexed to 100), while SLU’s power play has improved, pulling a 93.85 rating. Whether SLU wins or not will depend whether the Saints can play a disciplined game – they’ve given opponents over 10 minutes of power play time in four of their last six games, a span in which they’ve won… one game. Only in a 3-1 loss to Brown on Jan. 18 did SLU have more power play time than their opponents in that span. … Interesting is that Brown at Princeton is nearly a “pick ’em” game, and RPI at Dartmouth is not far off from that either. Yale, which has the best penalty kill in the league (137.88) can beat Quinnipiac.

Saturday, Feb. 9

Clarkson at Colgate  EC 7:00 pm ET
St. Lawrence at Cornell  EC 7:00 pm ET
Union at Dartmouth  EC 7:00 pm ET
Yale at Princeton  EC,IV 7:00 pm ET
Brown at Quinnipiac  EC 7:00 pm ET

Parlay this slate – or don’t, the last time I said to do that, it didn’t work out so well.

As always, email me with questions at leifskodnick@gmail.com.

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