We’re back with another edition of the ECAC Power Ratings. I’d have had this post up on Tuesday night, but we at the Skodnick Hockey Ratings Office were batting a stomach bug last weekend and thus the early part of this week has been devoted to laundry and cleaning the house.
You’ll note that the ratings look different this week. At the suggestion of former (Biloxi, Miss.) Sun Herald sports reporter, SABR member and current Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College SID Don Hammack, I’ve indexed all the ratings off a base of 100. This means that 100 is the average rating, so the further away a team’s rating is from 100, higher or lower, the better or worse the rating. If you’re a baseball fan, you’ll recognize this from such stats as wRC+ (weighted Runs Created plus) and other SABRmetric measures of performance.
This week’s overall ratings, plus last week’s results and a few lines:
- Quinnipiac (14-3-0 Overall, 6-2-1 ECAC) – Rating: 126.47
It was a strong weekend for Quinnipiac. They shut out the No. 1 team in the country, UMass-Amherst, at home decisively (4-0) Friday night and fell 3-1 at the Mullins Center Saturday. That UMass-Amherst only had two minutes of power-play time on Friday night doubtlessly helped. The Bobcats, according to the data I’ve compiled, also boast the league’s best penalty kill and the third best power play, so it’s no surprise they’re holding onto the top rating.
2. Clarkson (9-6-0 Overall, 3-3-0 ECAC) – Rating: 117.68
Clarkson split with St. Lawrence despite outshooting the Saints by a roughly 2:1 margin over two games. They allowed four 5×5 goals in Friday’s 4-2 loss, not something you want to see when playing a team that allows 0.91 5×5 goals per game as SLU does. Casey Jones’ squad turned thigns around with a 3-0 shutout at Cheel on Saturday.
3. Union (8-4-3 Overall, 3-4-1 ECAC) – Rating: 116.04
Union tied Brown and was shut out by Yale. The Dutchmen haven’t been effective on the man advantage this season, and the Yale game is a good example: They had 11.5 minutes of power play time including a roughly 1/2 minute five-on-three and came up empty.
4. Yale (7-3-2 Overall, 6-2-1 ECAC) – Rating: 110.04
First-place Yale won games you’d expect them to win, beating RPI and shutting out Union, before allowing a season-high five goals in a loss at UMass-Amherst on Tuesday. The Elis are the second-best ECAC team at even strength and will only climb in the standings – and these ratings – if their strong even strength play continues.
5. Harvard (5-4-2 Overall, 2-3-2 ECAC) – Rating: 107.70
Harvard was idle this past week.
6. Cornell (6-5-0 Overall, 4-2-0 ECAC) – Rating: 100.59
Cornell was idle this past week.
7. Princeton (3-8-1 Overall, 3-4-1 ECAC) Rating: 94.735
The Tigers were widely expected to be better than they have been so far this season. They live and die by their power play, which has scored 10 goals this year and is second-best in the league behind Harvard (measured by Goals For/60min – Goals Against/60min). Unfortunately, the boys of Baker Rink are mediocre five-on-five.
8. Dartmouth (4-5-1 Overall, 4-2-1 ECAC) – Rating: 92.743
Dartmouth lost both ends of a home-and-home to in-state rival UNH.
9. Brown (2-6-3 Overall, 2-4-3 ECAC) – Rating: 89.86
Brown tied Union and lost a one-goal game to RPI. Brown is an interesting team – their power-play is a net negative for the year. The Bears have scored two power-play goals… and allowed three shorties. But hey, five-on-five play and penalty killing is keeping Brendan Whittet’s club afloat, for now at least.
10. Colgate (4-9-2 Overall, 1-3-2 ECAC) – Rating: 82.54
Colgate split a pair on the road at Niagara.
11. St. Lawrence (3-12-1 Overall, 1-4-1 ECAC) – Rating: 80.47
To a St. Lawrence fan, there’s nothing better than beating Clarkson, a feat the Saints somehow pulled out on Friday night, scoring four five-on-five goals at Appleton in a 4-2 victory despite being outshot by a nearly 2:1 margin and giving up 83 shot attempts to Clarkson. However, this is a team that is tied for the most goals allowed per game (3.83) and allows more shots and shot attempts than any other team in the nation. Savor the victories when they come, Saints fans.
12. RPI (4-11-0 Overall, 3-5-0 ECAC) – Rating: 80.35
The Engineers fall to the bottom of the ratings with losses to Yale and Brown.
This weeks games (and picks in bold):
Friday, Dec. 14
Dartmouth at Boston University (NC) 7:30 p.m.
Saturday, Dec. 15
Penn State vs. Princeton, 7:30 p.m. – Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
With only two games, I assure you I’ll have the ratings up earlier next week. As always, if you find this stuff interesting, you can support my work at https://www.patreon.com/leifskodnick.